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Growth of Iran's Non-Oil Exports - 2019
2019 will probably be the first year in Iran's modern history where non-oil export revenue will exceed that of oil exports, reaching >$40bn.

Iran's non-oil exports have doubled in the last 10 years under sanctions.

[Image: EO.png]

For comparison, in 1995, total exports for Pakistan/Egypt vs Iran's non-oil exports:

Pakistan: $8bn
Egypt: $3bn
Iran: $4bn

In 2018, total exports for Pakistan/Egypt vs Iran's non-oil exports:

Pakistan: $23bn
Egypt: $29bn
Iran: $33bn

Thus, from 1995 to 2018, Iran's non-oil exports expanded from $4 billion to over $40 billion in 2019 (a 900% increase). This is despite huge sanctions, corruption, economic mismanagement, inflation etc. During this same period of time, Pakistan's total exports have increased from $8 billion to $23 billion (a comparatively small 188% increase). Egypt's total exports increased from $3 billion to $29 billion (a 867% increase).

Both Pakistan and Egypt have significantly larger populations than Iran (Egypt at 100 million and Pakistan at 200 million) and do not face US sanctions that hinder (/outright prohibit) Iranian exports. Yet, Iran's non-oil exports have grown at a faster rate than Egypt and Pakistan's entire exports - and now surpass both in absolute terms (>$40 billion vs $23/29 billion). 

Iran arguably faced greater geopolitical headwinds, but Iran's non-oil exports now exceed total exports for both Egypt/Pakistan.

State policy is prioritizing non-oil growth. Iranian companies are learning how to be exporters. The rial is cheaper and so are Iranian goods. Iraq and Afghanistan are more stable. Transport links emerging to Far East and Central Asia. There's a case for optimism here. 

The narrative is that Iran is a total economic basketcase, but Egypt and Pakistan are sitting there having had years of US aid, no sanctions, support from the IMF and have let their total exports fall below Iran’s non-oil exports."

Credit: Esfandyar; Bourse and Bazaar []

Note 1: The numbers for oil exports do not include petrochemical exports [around $6 billion in 2018].

Note 2: This is clearly because of the drastic cut in Iran's oil exports due to the the US' sanctions. But the trend of growth in non-oil exports is consistent and clear. 

Note 3: Things could change - for example if Iran reaches a deal with France/EU to export 0.7-1.5m bpd of oil to EU.
Now Imagine when Iran stops being a crude oil exporter and instead becomes an oil derivative products exporter . that will shoot up the non crude oil exports of Iran to new heights. and we are not even talking about natural gas..
experience is like a comb that God gives to you after you lost your hair. Undecided
Problem is although Iran has huge natural gas reserves it only exports a small amount because it has made a huge drive to make domestic cars run on LNG, so there is a lot of gas output is used domestically. This idea was probably so Iran could export more oil.
نه شرقی، نه غربی، جمهوری اسلامی
(09-04-2019, 09:52 AM)AmirPatriot Wrote: Problem is although Iran has huge natural gas reserves it only exports a small amount because it has made a huge drive to make domestic cars run on LNG, so there is a lot of gas output is used domestically. This idea was probably so Iran could export more oil.
Natural gas is included as "oil exports" here, so the non-oil export figures do not include natural gas Smile

In related news:

Iran exports $85 billion gas condensate, non-oil goods

Tehran (ISNA) – Iran’s natural gas condensate and non-oil exports has been $85 billion in a 22-month period began on August 23, 2017.
Iran’s exports to Oman have significantly increased over the past six years to approach a target of $1 billion, says a trade representative.

Head of the Joint Iran-Oman Chamber of Commerce Mohsen Zarrabi said on Wednesday that total exports from Iran to Oman had reached $728 million, up nearly 400 percent from figures existing in August 2013, when the current administrative government took office for a first time.

Zarrabi did not elaborate on the calendar period used for calculation of the figures but added that the overall trade between Iran and Oman had increased over the past years to stand at $1.161 billion.

He said the trade boom had come mainly due to a better export management scheme which has been put in place by the government since American sanctions began to affect Iran’s crude sales last year.

Iran’s main items of export to Oman include food, agricultural and livestock products, construction material and equipment and engineering and technical services.

Zarrabi said that exports to Oman currently accounted for just three percent of the country’s yearly imports, adding that the share could be increased to 10 percent, or over $2 billion in value, in a near future.
A senior Iranian oil ministry official says exports of refined products derived from crude have topped 22.5 tons, generating an income of $12 billion a year for the country.

Behzad Mohammadi, who heads National Petrochemical Company of Iran (NPC), said on Monday that current volume of exports of refined products account for a third of Iran’s annual output.

“Some 56 petrochemical complexes are currently active in the country producing 66 million tons of various products,” Mohammadi told IRIB News, adding that more than half of Iran’s petchem output serves as feed to refineries and the rest is sold through domestic sale or exports.

The official said the total income generated from Iran’s refined products amounted to $17 billion a year, saying petchem exports continued to account for the bulk of Iran’s non-oil exports and a major source of income for the government at the time of American sanctions that have hampered crude sale.

He said Iran eyes to increase output of petrochemicals by 50 percent to reach a target of 100 million tons a year by 2021, adding that would increase income derived from the sector to $25 billion.

The official said a total of 27 petrochemical projects would be completed in the next two years, including the Kaveh Petrochemicals, the world’s largest methanol production unit, whose construction is planned to finish until March 2020.
another good news about the non oil exports.

Iran’s Non-Oil Exports Rise by 136%
By IFP Editorial Staff -September 12, 2019 - 20:35

[Image: ship.jpg]

Iran’s non-petroleum exports have registered a considerable rise in 2019 over the previous year.
A senior industry official says some $12.697 billion worth of non-oil commodities were exported through the customs of the southern Hormozgan province in the five months to August 2019, showing a 136% growth year on year.

“The goods mainly included iron ore, polythene and tar oil as well as mineral and chemical fertilizers, which were exported to China, the United Arab Emirates, Thailand, India, Oman and Ghana,” said Khalil Qassemi, the head of the Industry, Mines and Trade Organization of Hormozgan province.
experience is like a comb that God gives to you after you lost your hair. Undecided
Iran says July-August 2019 steel exports increase by 37% vs 2018

Quote:The IMIDRO said on Sunday that steel exports recorded between July 23 and August 22 this year had surged to 633,050 tons, up from 462,000 tons in the same period last year.

The holding said Khouzestan Steel Company (KSC), a major mill located southwest of Iran, topped the list of nine big exporting companies with 174,772 tons while Iran Alloy Steel Company (IASCO) came last with a total exports of 510 tons in the monthly period.

The government said earlier this month that it would slap a harsh tariff of 25 percent on exports of raw iron to help steel mills struggling with low stocks.

Official data suggest Iran’s annual steel output hit a record of 35 million tons in the year ending March 2019 while exports stood at seven million tons.

Sources within the industry say Iran seeks to become the seventh top steel producer in the world by 2025 relying on plans to bring output to 55 million tons a year.

Iran secures €1.2bn of Russian loan for building mega power plant

Quote:Iran’s Minister of Energy Reza Ardakanian said on Sunday that Iran was now able to access the loan for construction activities to start at Sirik Power Plant after Iranian and Russian authorities signed final documents related to the loan deal.

The minister said construction activities for the major power plant, which is located on the Persian Gulf coast facing the Strait of Hormuz, would begin in two months time.

He had said during the trip that the long-anticipated Russian loan for Sirik, a 1,400 megawatt power plant that is estimated to cost €1.4 billion, would be paid soon.

Iran has sought to use Russian finances for its growing electricity sector. Once fully operational, the Sirik project would add some 12 terawatt hours of power to Iran’s current production of more than 300 TWh.
Quote:Iran’s oil minister says gas production from the South Pars gas field is nearing record levels so that Iran could for a first time take the lead in daily production from the field which is shared with Qatar.

Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said on Monday that Iran’s daily output from the world’s largest gas field would reach 790 million cubic meters per day in a near future, outperforming Qatar which currently extracts around 620 million cubic meters a day from the field.

The announcement is a revision of previous estimates about Iran’s increased production at South Pars. Zanganeh had said earlier this year that output from the field, which straddles the maritime border between Iran and Qatar in the Persian Gulf, would hit a target of 750 million cubic meters per day by the end of 2019.

Zanganeh said Iran’s ongoing development plans were focused on phases 13, 22-24 and the offshore section of the phase 14, adding that all of those projects would conclude by late March 2020.
Iran reports first quarterly economic growth in a year (0.4% in non-oil GDP in first quarter of 1398)

Quote: Authorities say Iran’s economic growth, without considering the sale of oil, was 0.4 percent in the first three months of the current Persian calendar year beginning in late March.

The Governor of the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) Abdolnasser Hemmati said on Thursday that growth recorded in the first quarter, compared to the similar period in 2018, was a first to come after months of depression that began following a decision by the United States last year to withdraw from an agreement on Iran’s nuclear program and impose sanctions on the country.

He said, however, that the development was “promising” given that Iran had reported three quarters of negative growth over 2018-2019.

Reports suggest Iran has managed to offset the impacts of the American sanctions that were enacted in November and toughened in May.

National currency rial began to rise against foreign currencies in July after months of trading at historic lows while the CBI and Iran’s Statistical Center have reported improved economic indicators, including lower inflation and increased employment.

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