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U.S. 2020 Presidential Election
Thread to discuss the 2020 Presidential Election scheduled for November 3rd 2020. 

The first Democratic primaries:
- February 3rd, Iowa
- February 11th, New Hampshire
- February 22nd, Nevada
- February 29th, South Carolina
- March 3rd ("Super Tuesday), 14 primaries 

[Image: prim.png]

The current Democratic Party front-runners are Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. Head to head polls vs Trump currently show that all 3 consistently lead Trump by approx +3-10%.

The latest poll for Iowa (CBS/YouGov, Oct 3-11th) shows Biden and Warren tied at 22% with Bernie at 21%. 

The latest poll for New Hampshire (same) shows Warren leading with 32%, with Biden at 24% and Bernie at 17%. 

The latest poll for Nevada has Bernie leading with 29%, with Biden at 27% and Warren at 18%. 

The next Democratic debate is scheduled to take place on Tuesday 15th October with 12 Democratic candidates having qualified to participate in the debate.

Disclosure: I am 100% behind Bernie Sanders. Biden so far in the debates has been terrible and seems to be severely affected by his age. I don't think he could keep up with Trump in the debates at all. Warren is a former Republican and would be a good option, but in my opinion Trump would have a very easy time against her. Women seem to have certain structural disadvantages in elections (possibly because voters psychologically prefer certain characteristics that are mostly associated with men). Bernie is the only candidate that I believe could beat Trump in an election; the majority of Americans support his main policies (medicare for all, living wage, eliminate student debt, etc) and he has the strongest grass roots fundraising base of any Democratic candidate.
Bernie would the best for Iran, but because he's viewed as a "socialist" in America (most other places he'd be still be centre-right or even a social democrat), Biden and Warren probably have the best chance. Warren has shown to be strong in debates but Biden seems to be viewed better because of his established place and his role in the Obama administration. But he really needs to get his act together if he wants to win the primaries and beat Trump.
نه شرقی، نه غربی، جمهوری اسلامی
New polls show that of the 3 front-runners of the Democratic race only Bernie beats Trump in Iowa. Bernie also leads in polls vs Trump in other key swing states that Trump defeated Hillary in.

[Image: BERN.png]

Bernie was also given a huge boost after AOC and 'the squad' endorsed Bernie for President.

The 4th Democratic debate was a few days ago and even mainstream corporate media had to admit that Bernie was the best performer and clearly won the debate (putting to bed faux concerns of his age/health):

Quote:Winner: Bernie Sanders. Loser: Joe Biden.

The rally might be persuasive, but he might not even need it. Bernie gave a commanding, memorable performance that might have been enough to neutralize the health issue going forward.

Quote:Bernie Sanders: A

Throughout the three-hour event, Sen. Sanders was consistently sharper than normal, and he outperformed the others, especially Elizabeth Warren, when explaining the financials of his healthcare plan. I liked his attitude about his health: we can judge it by watching him take the campaign by storm. He was the star of the evening.

Quote:What heart attack? Bernie bounces back at debate

Bernie Sanders didn't look like a guy who just had a heart attack.

After being sidelined for nearly two weeks after his health scare, the Vermont senator returned to the campaign trail with the kind of night he desperately needed: An energetic performance at Tuesday's three-hour Democratic debate.
The latest Emerson national poll (October 18-21) shows Bernie Sanders closing the gap to Biden:

[Image: Em.png]

Also, it should be noted that Bernie consistently out-performed the polls in the 2016 primaries (and those were more recent polls just before the primaries) - these polls inherently under-estimate Bernie's support because they are mostly based on landline calls, thus tilted towards older voters at the expense of younger voters (whom overwhelmingly support Bernie Sanders).
New CNN poll of likely Democratic voters in New Hampshire primary (the second Democratic primary, which will take place on Feb 11th 2020) shows Bernie surge into a lead:

[Image: Screenshot-2019-10-29-at-19-14-32.png]
Latest CBS/YouGov poll for Iowa (6th-13th/11):

- Bernie Sanders: 22% (+1%)
- Joe Biden: 22%
- Buttigieg: 21% (+7%)
- Warren: 18% (-3%)
thanks for keeping us updated on this
The next (5th) Democratic debate will take place on Wednesday 20th November 2019. 10 candidates qualified for the debate.

After this, the 6th debate will take place on 19th December (the last debate of 2019) and candidates have until 12th December to qualify. So far, 6 candidates have qualified for the 6th debate (Bernie Sanders, Biden, Warren, Harris, Buttigieg and Klobuchar) - realistically only Yang and Tulsi Gabbard can also qualify. So by the end of December we will be down to the final 6-8 Democratic candidates.
Bernie Sanders today became the first Democratic candidate to reach 4 million individual donations to his campaign.

In 2016 Bernie reached that number in February during the New Hampshire primary, so he is 3-4 months ahead of his last run...!
Latest national (Dem) poll (Emerson; Nov 17-20; MoE 4.5%):

[Image: BERN.png]

Bernie tied for first with Biden with both at 27%! 


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